Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES) scenarios
Japan has relied on goods and services imported from other countries with calorie-based food self-sufficiency of 38% and is under a long-term population decline, causing land-abandonment across the country.
The main objective of the scenario building is to
explore the implications of future uncertainties (1. population distribution and 2. reliance/wise use of domestic natural capital) on land-use and ecosystem services of Japan up-to 2050. Four scenarios were developed through the scenario-axes technique and then were quantified with a set of various models.
O. Saito, C. Kamiyama, S. Hashimoto, T. Matsui, K. Shoyama, K. Kabaya, T. Uetake, H. Taki, Y. Ishikawa, K. Matsushita, F. Yamane, J. Hori, T. Ariga, K.Takeuchi (2019) Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services. Sustainability Science, 14-1, p.5-21.
K. Shoyama, T. Matsui, S. Hashimoto, K. Kabaya, A. Oono, O. Saito (2019) Development of land-use scenarios using vegetation inventories in Japan. Sustainability Science, 14-1, p.39-52.
S. Hashimoto, R. DasGupta, K. Kabaya, T. Matsui, C. Haga, O. Saito, K. Takeuchi (2019) Scenario analysis of land-use and ecosystem services of social-ecological landscapes: implications of alternative development pathways under declining population in the Noto Peninsula, Japan. Sustainability Science, 14-1, p.53-75.