Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) scenarios and a long-term ex-post evaluation: The case of Lestolet watershed

In 2006, spatially-explicit LUCC scenarios were developed to investigate the influence of agricultural practices on water resources. In a study conducted after the time horizon, we evaluated the impacts of those scenarios on decision-making.

Using a qualitative and quantitative approach, we analysed drivers of land-use impacting the Lestolet watershed (north-west of France) between 2006 and 2020. We investigated the impact of scenarios on public decision-making.

Although models excluded some drivers of land cover change, the scenarios impacted local water management and other social variables. This study provides an overview of the outcomes of scenarios and influencing factors. Moreover, we give recommendations for different stages of the scenario-building process to enhance scenario outcomes.

The assessment verified that the scenarios supported definition of a local water management strategy, and helped land managers recognize the challenges and opportunities faced by local farmers.

The scenarios were made in:

2006

The scenarios look out to:

2020

Project facts

France

Brittany

2006

Submitted by:

Roberta Rigo

Project member

10 oktober 2022

How to cite this page:

Roberta Rigo

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) scenarios and a long-term ex-post evaluation: The case of Lestolet watershed

Resources

Rigo, R., Martin, P., Verburg, P.H., Houet, T. “Contributions of local LUCC spatially explicit scenarios for water management: Lessons learned from an ex-post evaluation.” Futures 139 (2022)

Houet, Thomas, et al. "Exploring subtle land use and land cover changes: a framework for future landscape studies." Landscape Ecology 25.2 (2010): 249-266.

Houet T., Hubert-Moy L. and Tyssot C., (2011) Fine scale spatialised prospective modelling - a methodological approach. Application to water management in Brittany, Revue Internationale de Géomatique, vol. 21, pp. 67-93

Project images

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The Authors

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The Authors

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