Sustainable Future Scenarios 2060
Community, municipal, and regional decision-makers from across the Phoenix region co-developed scenarios to explore alternative futures for the Phoenix metro region that address challenges like extreme heat, drought, and flood.
The Central Arizona–Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) Sustainable Future Scenarios project co-developed seven unique scenarios to address long-term challenges for the Central Arizona-Phoenix area and increase regional capacity to meet those challenges. The scenarios developed included one strategic scenario based on existing governance documents and institutional plans, three co-produced adaptive scenarios, and three co-produced transformative scenarios. The six co-produced scenarios were developed through participatory workshops held from December 2014 through January 2017; participants included stakeholders from a variety of area governing agencies, non-governmental organizations, and academic institutions. Synthetic outputs of the workshops include multi-criteria evaluations of the projected scenario outcomes, renderings, and narratives.
Expected impact: to address long-term challenges for the Central Arizona-Phoenix area and increase regional capacity to meet those challenges.
The Sustainable Future Scenarios (SFS) process enhanced research, policy, advocacy, and decision-making at multiple scales in the CAP region. From a research perspective, the SFS participatory process was an opportunity to synthesize diverse forms of knowledge and data about the CAP SETS. While the CAP scenarios are not expected to become a future reality in their entirety, the regional challenges will likely become reality. The SFS process helped build relationships among stakeholders from diverse sectors, cities, and scales who do not typically work together. Moreover, the strategies developed in the SFS workshops are being incorporated explicitly in the City of Phoenix Sustainability Plan as a direct outcome of the participation of the Chief Sustainability Office for the City of Phoenix.
The scenarios were made in:
The scenarios look out to:
Iwaniec, D. M., M. J. Davidson, E. M. Cook, M. Berbés-Blázquez and N. B. Grimm. 2020. Integrating existing climate adaptation planning into future visions: a strategic scenario for the central Arizona–Phoenix region. Landscape and Urban Planning 200(Aug):103820. DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103820.
Iwaniec, D. M., E. M. Cook, M. J. Davidson, M. Berbés-Blázquez, M. Georgescu, E. S. Krayenhoff, A. Middel, D. A. Sampson and N. B. Grimm. 2020. The co-production of sustainable future scenarios. Landscape and Urban Planning 197:103744. DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103744.