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Dynamic Systems Models for the Kalahari

A semi-arid rangeland case study of how a range of external pressures affect the vulnerability of dryland pastoral systems in the Kalahari, Botswana.

This project employed dynamic systems modelling approaches to understand the pathways by which Kalahar pastoral communities became vulnerable to drought. Specifically, we evaluate how external pressures have changed: (1) different agroecosystems' abilities to tolerate drought, i.e., ecosystem resilience; (2) rural communities’ abilities to adapt to drought, mediated via their access to assets; and (3) the ability of institutions and policy interventions to play a role in mediating drought-related crises, i.e., socio-political governance.

The Government of Botswana’s 2011 review of the National Agricultural Policy formally recognised the potential for greater community empowerment in rangeland monitoring and management initiatives. Rangeland management guides were produced for 3 study sites & used in project extension advice.

The scenarios were made in:

2009

The scenarios look out to:

1990 - 2050

Project facts

Botswana

2009

Submitted by:

Andrew Dougill

Project leader

January 1, 2023

How to cite this page:

Andrew Dougill

Dynamic Systems Models for the Kalahari

1/1/2023

Resources

Dougill, A.J., Fraser, E.D.G., Reed, M.S. (2010). Anticipating Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Pastoral Systems: Using Dynamic Systems Models for the Kalahari. Ecology and Society, 15(2), 17.

Fraser, E.D.G., Dougill, A.J., Hubacek, K., Quinn, C.H., Sendzimir, J., Termansen, M. (2011). Assessing vulnerability to climate change in dryland livelihood systems: conceptual challenges and interdisciplinary solutions. Ecology and Society 16 (3): 3.

Twyman, C. Fraser, E.D.G., Stringer, L.C., Quinn, C.H., Dougill, A.J., Ravera, F., Crane, T., Sallu, S.M. (2011). Climate Science, Development Practice and Policy Interactions in Dryland Agro-ecological Systems. Ecology and Society 16(3): 14.

Project images

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Andrew Dougill

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Mark Reed

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Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 
Main ecosystems 
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