Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES) scenarios

Japan has relied on goods and services imported from other countries with calorie-based food self-sufficiency of 38% and is under a long-term population decline, causing land-abandonment across the country.

The main objective of the scenario building is to
explore the implications of future uncertainties (1. population distribution and 2. reliance/wise use of domestic natural capital) on land-use and ecosystem services of Japan up-to 2050. Four scenarios were developed through the scenario-axes technique and then were quantified with a set of various models.

This case provides a new approach to collectively develop nationalscale future scenarios for the purpose of exploring potential changes in natural capital and ecosystem services and human well-being up to 2050 using key direct and indirect drivers

The scenarios were made in:

2018

The scenarios look out to:

2050

Project facts

Japan

2018

http://pances.net/eng/index.html

Submitted by:

Shizuka Hashimoto

Project member

February 13, 2021

How to cite this page:

Shizuka Hashimoto

Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES) scenarios

www.biospherefutures.net

2/13/2021

Resources

O. Saito, C. Kamiyama, S. Hashimoto, T. Matsui, K. Shoyama, K. Kabaya, T. Uetake, H. Taki, Y. Ishikawa, K. Matsushita, F. Yamane, J. Hori, T. Ariga, K.Takeuchi (2019) Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services. Sustainability Science, 14-1, p.5-21.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-018-0587-9

K. Shoyama, T. Matsui, S. Hashimoto, K. Kabaya, A. Oono, O. Saito (2019) Development of land-use scenarios using vegetation inventories in Japan. Sustainability Science, 14-1, p.39-52.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11625-018-0617-7

S. Hashimoto, R. DasGupta, K. Kabaya, T. Matsui, C. Haga, O. Saito, K. Takeuchi (2019) Scenario analysis of land-use and ecosystem services of social-ecological landscapes: implications of alternative development pathways under declining population in the Noto Peninsula, Japan. Sustainability Science, 14-1, p.53-75.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-018-0626-6