Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES) scenarios
Japan has relied on goods and services imported from other countries with calorie-based food self-sufficiency of 38% and is under a long-term population decline, causing land-abandonment across the country.
The main objective of the scenario building is to
explore the implications of future uncertainties (1. population distribution and 2. reliance/wise use of domestic natural capital) on land-use and ecosystem services of Japan up-to 2050. Four scenarios were developed through the scenario-axes technique and then were quantified with a set of various models.
This case provides a new approach to collectively develop nationalscale future scenarios for the purpose of exploring potential changes in natural capital and ecosystem services and human well-being up to 2050 using key direct and indirect drivers
The scenarios were made in:
The scenarios look out to:
O. Saito, C. Kamiyama, S. Hashimoto, T. Matsui, K. Shoyama, K. Kabaya, T. Uetake, H. Taki, Y. Ishikawa, K. Matsushita, F. Yamane, J. Hori, T. Ariga, K.Takeuchi (2019) Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services. Sustainability Science, 14-1, p.5-21.
K. Shoyama, T. Matsui, S. Hashimoto, K. Kabaya, A. Oono, O. Saito (2019) Development of land-use scenarios using vegetation inventories in Japan. Sustainability Science, 14-1, p.39-52.
S. Hashimoto, R. DasGupta, K. Kabaya, T. Matsui, C. Haga, O. Saito, K. Takeuchi (2019) Scenario analysis of land-use and ecosystem services of social-ecological landscapes: implications of alternative development pathways under declining population in the Noto Peninsula, Japan. Sustainability Science, 14-1, p.53-75.