Flores Island (Portugal): Participative foresight scenario mapping

Participative foresight scenario mapping methodology was used to explore the sustainable future of a small island (Flores, Portugal) and to analyse in depth specific strategies for sustainability.

Two holistic scenarios for Flores Island (Portugal), a small isolated island, were developed in a two step process. The first step involved specialised stakeholders and decision-makers, and the second step involved lay citizens. The scenarios aimed at proposing alternative visions of the island’s future in 2030. Multi-criteria mapping was adapted for participative appraisal of the scenarios. The methodology proved to be successful in informing preferred futures although there was an elevated uncertainty. The project showed the limits of expert knowledge for the appraisal of holistic scenarios.

As a research project the impact was not normative but a relevant part of the population of Flores Island participated to the project.

The scenarios were made in:

The scenarios look out to:

2010

2030

Project facts

Portugal

Flores Island (Azores Autonomous Region)

2010

Submitted by:

José Benedicto Royuela

Project leader

5 september 2022

How to cite this page:

José Benedicto Royuela

Flores Island (Portugal): Participative foresight scenario mapping

Resources

Benedicto, J., Buckingham, S. y Eames, M. (2018) ‘Transitions to sustainability in small islands: combining foresight scenarios with multi-criteria analysis to develop viable sustainability strategies in an EOR.’ The International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology. 25(8). pp.729–737.

Benedicto, J., Eames, M. and Buckingham, S. (2016) ‘‘Participative foresight scenario mapping’: adapting an MCM method to appraise foresight scenarios for the long term sustainable development of a small island.’ International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making. 6(2). pp. 118-137

Benedicto, J. (2014) ‘Identity and decision-making for sustainability in the context of small islands’ Journal of Integrated Coastal Zone Management, 14(2) pp. 199-213.

Project images

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JBR

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JBR

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JBR

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JBR